Data highlights in Cabo Delgado province (10 - 23 February 2025)
* At least 12 political violence events (2,028 in total since 1 October 2017)
* At least 16 reported fatalities from political violence (5,940 since 1 October 2017)
* At least 11 reported civilian fatalities (2,477 since 1 October 2017)
Overview
Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) remained active in Meluco, Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe, and Quissanga districts. The group undertook a variety of actions that targeted civilians, and sought provisions. They clashed once with the Local Force in Macomia and overran a FADM position in Quissanga. The group’s apparent strength tallies with estimates released this month with a report from a United Nations Security Council team, though ACLED data suggests that the report may have overestimated supply challenges the group is facing.
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Cabo Ligado Update: 10 - 23 de Fevereiro de 2025 — Cabo LigadoEm números Principais dados na província de Cabo Delgado (10 - 23 de Fevereiro de 2025) Pelo menos 12 eventos de violência política ( 2 028 no total desde 1 de Outubro de 2017) Pelo menos 16 fatalidades relatadas de violência política ( 5 940 desde 1 de outubro de 2017) Pelo menosCabo LigadoCabo Ligado
Situation Summary
Insurgents return to Macomia
After carrying out an incursion into the western districts of Montepuez and Meluco, ISM shifted focus back to the N380 highway in Macomia district. On 10 February, insurgents burned several homes in the village of Namagico in Meluco, near Ravia, where they had beheaded at least three artisanal miners on 26 January. One source reported that the insurgents prayed in the village mosque during the attack. This is likely the same group that undertook attacks in Montepuez and Meluco districts in January, and likely indicates their return to Macomia.
The next day they appeared approximately 70 kilometers to the east of Ravia in the village of Minhanha in Meluco, where they looted food and drink from the market. Carta de Moçambique reported an attack that day in an unnamed village in Meluco near the Montepuez border that fit the description of Minhanha. Multiple people were killed, according to Carta, but this has not been claimed by Islamic State (IS).
The attack on Minhanha was the last reported insurgent incident in Meluco in this period. This was followed by a sharp uptick in attacks in Macomia district along the N380 highway, suggesting that fighters have returned to the east. On 12 February, multiple sources confirm that insurgents raided Litamanda village for food, with one reporting five fatalities. On 18 February, insurgents attempted to invade the village of Chai, just south of Litamanda on the N380, but they were repelled by the Local Force, who killed two insurgents, local sources reported. Although this was just the latest in a number of attacks on Litamanda, it was the first that state forces met with an immediate response.
Insurgents regrouped the following day and attacked the village of Nkoe, just off the N380, approximately 20 km north of Macomia town. They looted food and burned homes according to multiple sources, one of which reported that insurgents killed two civilians during the incident. One local source told Cabo Ligado that stolen food from western Macomia is being transported through the Catupa forest to support insurgents based on the Macomia coast.
Insurgents are still operating on the Macomia coast, though their presence has reportedly been much reduced by Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) patrols. IS said it detonated an IED on a Mozambican army patrol vehicle but did not claim any casualties.
Attacks stretch from Quissanga to Mocímboa da Praia
Disparate bands of fighters have launched attacks in the southern district of Quissanga, the northern districts of Mocímboa da Praia and Muidumbe, and the Macomia coast. A group of insurgents arrived in Quissanga district around 16 February, when they were spotted in the Namaluco administrative post. On 20 February, they assaulted a Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) outpost in the village of Bilibiza, killing two soldiers. The outpost was largely unguarded as several soldiers were drinking in the village at the time of the attack, according to Moz24h. The news site also reported that FADM soldiers returned to Bilibiza after Rwandan troops had secured the area.
IS claimed responsibility for the attack and posted a photo purportedly of the two victims, one of whom was wearing military fatigues. The other body appeared to be partially undressed, suggesting that the garrison was taken by surprise. IS also shared pictures of a burning camp and a large stockpile of weapons and ammunition that they claimed to have captured in the attack. This includes several assault rifles, light machine guns, and rocket-propelled grenade launchers. In the photos of the burning camp, the tents are clearly constructed from tree branches, which may suggest there was a shortage of proper military field equipment.
A separate group of insurgents remains embedded in Mocímboa da Praia. On 13 February, insurgents attempted a raid on the village of Mbau but were thwarted by the local population, who set upon one of the attackers and killed him. Meanwhile, in Muidumbe district, IS issued a claim for the killing of a civilian on 17 February near the village of Chitunda on the N380, just south of the district border of Mocímboa da Praia.
Focus: Security Council assessment of ISM
The United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team released its latest report on the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in February, covering June to December 2024. Its assessment of the state of ISM — referred to as Ahl al-Sunna wal Jama’a (ASWJ) in Security Council reports — largely coincides with Cabo Ligado’s assessment of the group’s standing. The report focused on the group’s numbers, the impact of last year’s operations by the RDF, leadership, and the group’s seemingly diminishing resources.
The report estimates the group’s size as between 200 and 300 “adult male fighters,” similar to earlier estimates. This leaves out children involved in the group. The 13 February edition of al-Naba pictured what was likely a child holding the IS flag over two captured villagers in Litandacua village, Macomia. According to a source in Macomia, the group currently active near the N380 has at least 16 members under 18 years of age. The same source estimates the Macomia group at 100 fighters in total. This tallies with analysis in the monitoring team’s July report, which also estimated approximately 300 fighters, divided between three main groups.
The report’s mention of RDF aerial bombardments on the coast in Macomia district in July and August reflects some ambiguity about the impact of the operation. The report notes that ISM sustained “notable” casualties, but that it was able to continue its operations in the area. Despite these significant, if unquantified, casualties, the monitoring team’s assessment of the group’s size has remained the same since July. Indeed, in every month since August, with the exception of December, ACLED records ISM involvement in clashes and IED events in coastal areas of Macomia, raising questions about the impact of Rwandan forces’ operations.
The report mentions the current leadership of Ulanga, who is also known as Abu Zainabo, and Faridi Suleiman Haruni. In focusing on these two well-known figures, the report perhaps highlights the lack of knowledge of other current leaders within the group. ISM’s dispersed nature has always encouraged a flat command structure across active units, so understanding the backgrounds of unit and base leaders is critical to understanding their relationships with communities in the areas where they operate.
Finally, the report points to member state intelligence that “hunger is rife” within ISM, prompting an increase in raids on villages for supplies since July. ACLED data may be a proxy indicator for ISM’s current resources. ACLED's dataset tracks looting and property destruction events, as well as attacks targeting civilians, which in this context usually involve the looting of goods. For both of these categories, there has been no significant increase in such events since July. Indeed, there were considerably more such events in January and February 2024 than in any month since July.
Round Up
Europe suspends ‘defense consultations’ with Rwanda over DRC
The European Union’s High Representative Kaja Kallas announced on 24 February that the European Union would be suspending “defense consultations” with Rwanda. This comes in response to Rwanda’s involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The EU agreed to continue support to Rwandan operations in Mozambique in November 2024. It is not yet clear if that support is affected by this week’s decision.
The IMF meets with Chapo as cost of living demonstrations continue
From 16 to 21 February, ACLED records 25 demonstrations across the country, over half of which directly addressed issues such as school fees, access to basic services, and the cost of living. On 20 February, a delegation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met with President Daniel Chapo. IMF delegation head Pablo Lopez Murphy promised continued IMF support, currently channeled through a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF), which concludes later this year. Under the current ECF, the IMF sets stringent fiscal targets, such as controlling the public sector wage bill. The post-election unrest threatens such targets. The IMF predicts that economic growth will slow as a direct result of the unrest, and will be a challenge to fiscal discipline. Domestic pressures may make this difficult, as ongoing demonstrations force Chapo into decisions that threaten such commitments. Four days before the IMF visit, Chapo floated the idea of removing value-added tax from basic goods, a demand Venâncio Mondlane made in his 20 January ‘decree.’ Balancing the people’s interests against the IMF’s fiscal targets will be an ongoing challenge for the new president.
Regulator orders closure of Nampula radio stations for interfering with air trafficMozambique’s broadcasting regulator, the Institute of Communications of Mozambique (INCM), has ordered the temporary shutdown of three radio stations in Nampula, claiming they are interfering with air traffic. The stations — Rádio Encontro, Rádio Haq, and Rádio Vida — have questioned the decision, saying the notice they received lacked sufficient technical justification. According to the newspaper Ngani, the suspensions have sparked speculation of political motives, particularly since Rádio Encontro, owned by the Catholic Church, has been openly critical of the government. Ngani also reports that Rádio Encontro has been seeking, without success, a license to expand its coverage across Nampula province for the past three years.
Venâncio Mondlane's adviser denounces assassination attempt
Dinis Tivane, adviser to former presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane, has denounced an attack on his home on 23 February. In a publication on his Facebook page, Tivane said that unidentified people in a vehicle fired at least 24 shots at his property, just outside the perimeter of Maputo International Airport. At the time of the attack, Tivane said, his family was not home, and he was in South Africa. This was not the first such incident that Tivane had experienced that he believes to have been politically motivated and linked to the ruling Frelimo party.
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